According to PollCheck, Labour's majority on Birmingham City Council is set to be decimated in the 2026 local elections, with the party projected to fall from 65 seats to just 14. The Conservatives are expected to hold their ground, potentially gaining one seat to become the largest single party with 22 seats. Independents are forecast to win 20 seats, while Reform UK would add 11 seats, bringing their total to 18.
Projected Seat Changes
The projections, based on aggregated polls from established UK polling companies, show a dramatic shift in the political landscape of Birmingham. In the last election, Labour held 65 seats, the Conservatives 22, and the Liberal Democrats 12. The new forecast suggests:
- Conservative: 22 (+1)
- Independents: 20 (+7)
- Reform UK: 18 (+18)
- Labour: 14 (-51)
- Liberal Democrats: 14 (+2)
- Green: 13 (+11)
Geographical Breakdown
The electoral map from PollCheck indicates that Conservative strongholds remain in the north of the city, including Sutton Coldfield, Kingstanding, and Erdington. Independents are strongest in the inner city, while Reform UK is projected to perform well in southern areas such as Northfield, Selly Oak, and Harborne.
National Context
Across the UK, Labour is forecast to lose seats from 2,321 to 981, while the Conservatives drop from 1,231 to 712. The Liberal Democrats are expected to rise from 708 to 824, the Greens from 184 to 570, and Reform UK from 68 to 1,306. These projections highlight a significant shift away from the two main parties.
The 2026 local elections on May 7 are set to reshape Birmingham City Council, moving from a predominantly Labour-controlled body to a more fragmented, multi-coloured council.
