The Labour Party government and the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) are grappling with a ballooning welfare bill, and a dreaded state pension age change is now considered "more likely" by an academic. Dr Giray Gozgor from the University of Bradford has warned that the planned increase from 67 to 68 could be brought forward significantly.
Current State Pension Timetable
As it stands, the state pension age is rising from 66 to 67 under a pre-planned timetable that will continue until April 6, 2028. Subsequently, the DWP has scheduled another increase from 67 to 68 between 2044 and 2046. However, Dr Gozgor believes this timeline may be accelerated.
Earlier Increase Considered
Dr Gozgor told the Express: "One plausible alternative would be an increase between 2037 and 2039, a timetable considered in earlier reviews." He added: "A future increase to 69 is plausible, particularly over several decades. An increase to 70 is possible in principle, but remains considerably more speculative."
The academic cited factors such as increased life expectancy and the maintenance of the Triple Lock as contributors to the skyrocketing pensions bill. He stated: "A higher pension age is therefore a policy choice, rather than an unavoidable mathematical consequence of population ageing."
Policy Implications
Dr Gozgor emphasised: "I consider an earlier rise to 68 considerably more likely than an imminent decision to increase the state pension age to 69 or 70..." He noted that the central issue is not just whether people are living longer on average, but whether they are living longer in sufficiently good health to remain in employment and whether those required to wait longer for their pension have a genuine opportunity to continue working.
He added: "A sustainable and politically defensible reform would therefore require lengthy notice, transparent evidence, stronger employment support for older workers and targeted protection for those who cannot realistically remain in work."
Historical Context
The Pensions Act 2014 brought the increase in the state pension age from 66 to 67 forward by eight years. The state pension age for men and women will now increase to 67 between 2026 and 2028. The government also changed the phasing of the increase so that rather than reaching state pension age on a specific date, people born between April 6, 1960, and March 5, 1961, will reach their state pension age at 66 years and a specified number of months.
