West Bromwich Albion are currently embroiled in a tense and unwelcome Championship relegation battle, with their recent form causing significant concern among supporters and pundits alike. The Baggies have experienced a dramatic freefall in recent weeks and months, leaving them staring at the grim possibility of dropping into League One unless they can engineer a swift and substantial turnaround in fortunes.
The Current Championship Standings
As things stand, West Brom occupy 20th position in the second tier, a precarious placement that sees them just a single point above the relegation zone. Below them in the table sit Leicester City, Blackburn Rovers, Oxford United, and Sheffield Wednesday, all clubs similarly fighting for their Championship survival. The managerial change that brought Eric Ramsay in to replace the sacked Ryan Mason has yet to yield positive results, with the new boss securing zero wins and only two points from his first five league matches in charge.
Opta's Survival Prediction for West Brom
According to the latest data from Opta's sophisticated prediction models, West Bromwich Albion are forecast to finish the season in 21st place, surviving relegation by the narrowest of margins. The supercomputer projects that the Baggies will accumulate 50.88 points by the campaign's conclusion. This places them just ahead of Blackburn Rovers, who are predicted to amass 49.02 points and face the drop to League One, alongside Oxford United on 45.82 points and Sheffield Wednesday on a meagre 5.37 points.
This season is shaping up to be a particularly high-stakes relegation scrap, a fact reflected clearly in Opta's statistical projections. Historical context reveals that last season, Hull City secured their Championship status on goal difference with 49 points, while Luton Town suffered relegation on the final day. The previous campaign required 51 points for survival, with Birmingham City going down after accumulating 50 points.
Historical Championship Relegation Points
Analysis of the last decade shows that requiring 50 points to avoid relegation has been a rare occurrence in the Championship, happening only twice. The 2016/17 season saw Nottingham Forest preserve their second-tier status on goal difference with 51 points, at the expense of Blackburn Rovers. The highest points total for a relegated team since the Championship's inception in 2004/05 belongs to Peterborough United, who went down with 54 points in 2012/13 while Barnsley survived with 55. Interestingly, Peterborough also share the joint-record for the lowest points total for a team finishing 22nd, managing just 37 points in 2021/22. Historically, the average points required to secure Championship survival sits around 44.
West Brom's Path to Safety
Opta's model suggests West Brom will gather 17 more points throughout the remainder of the season, securing their Championship status for another year – albeit by the skin of their teeth. After a dismal run of just two league victories in their last 13 matches dating back to late November, Baggies fans would undoubtedly welcome any improvement in form, regardless of how it is achieved.
The West Midlands club can take some small comfort from the fact they are not alone in their struggles. Oxford United, Blackburn Rovers, and Leicester City are also finding victories elusive, with the latter two clubs currently operating without permanent managers. However, if Opta's predictions prove accurate, all these teams will mount significant challenges in the final months, ensuring a nerve-wracking conclusion for the clubs positioned above them.
West Bromwich Albion have spent only two seasons in English football's third tier throughout their entire 148-year history, during the 1991/92 and 1992/93 campaigns. The historic West Midlands club will be desperate to avoid what would be considered a minor disaster by dropping into League One this term. They have 15 matches remaining to secure their Championship future and avert that unwelcome scenario.
