Birmingham City are firmly setting their sights on securing a coveted play-off position in the Championship, with ambitious plans for back-to-back promotions driving their campaign. Following significant investment during the January transfer window, the team finds itself in a promising position as the season enters its final stretch, with 15 matches remaining to achieve their goal.
Current Standings and Play-Off Prospects
Currently occupying 10th place in the league table, Birmingham City are just two points adrift of Wrexham, who hold the sixth and final play-off spot. This narrow gap leaves Blues with ample opportunity to close the deficit and mount a late surge into the top six, despite spending much of the season in mid-table obscurity. Their next challenge is a local derby against West Bromwich Albion, a match that could prove pivotal in their quest.
The play-off race has been thrown wide open following Millwall's recent 2-0 victory over Wrexham. While the top five positions appear relatively secure, the battle for sixth place is intensely competitive. From Wrexham down to 14th place, a mere four points separate nine teams, creating a thrillingly tight contest. Birmingham, bolstered by a strong squad and ambitious ownership, believe they have as good a chance as any to clinch that final play-off berth.
Opta's Supercomputer Predictions
According to the latest data from Opta's supercomputer, Birmingham City are predicted to narrowly miss out on the play-offs. The projections suggest they will finish the season in their current 10th position with an estimated 65.93 points. Preston North End are tipped to secure sixth place with 67.50 points, just ahead of Blues.
Other teams forecasted to finish above Birmingham but outside the top six include Wrexham, Bristol City, and Derby County. Meanwhile, Ipswich Town, Hull City, and Millwall are expected to join Preston in the play-off places. At this juncture, Birmingham are given a 15.88% probability of reaching the top six, highlighting the fine margins involved, especially with Preston's chances rated at only 22.22%.
Points Target and Historical Context
Based on Opta's analysis, Birmingham City need to accumulate 68 points by the end of the season to guarantee a play-off spot. Starting from their current total of 45 points, this requires an additional 23 points from the remaining 15 fixtures—a challenging but achievable target that would see Chris Davies' side enter the play-offs in impressive form.
Historically, since the Championship's inception in the 2004/05 season, the average points required to finish sixth and qualify for the play-offs is 73.3. No team has ever reached the top six with fewer than 68 points, a record that could be tested this season if Opta's predictions hold true. However, Birmingham's projected total of 65.93 points is unlikely to suffice, even if the threshold dips slightly.
The highest points tally to miss out on the play-offs altogether stands at 75, achieved by Leeds United in the 2016/17 season when Fulham finished sixth with 80 points—the highest ever needed to secure a top-six place. Birmingham's last play-off appearance in the second tier was in the 2011/12 season, following their relegation from the Premier League, where they were defeated in the semi-finals by Blackpool. Since then, the West Midlands club has not finished higher than 10th in the Championship, but with 15 games left and everything still to play for, they are optimistic about ending that drought this term.
