A new pay-per-mile tax for electric vehicles has been branded a "guinea pig" trial that could soon lead to charges for every driver on UK roads, a leading campaigner has warned.
The 'Thin End of the Wedge' for Motorists
Howard Cox, the founder of the FairFuelUK campaign, has expressed serious fears that the recently announced 3p per mile fee for electric cars is merely the starting point for a broader road pricing scheme. He stressed that this move could pave the way for "digital ID control" of all road movements across the country.
Speaking to the Express, Cox stated: "I fear the 3p pay per mile on EVs is the thin end of the wedge that will hit all motorists, whatever fuel is used." He confirmed that the new charge on electric vehicles is likely the first step towards a system that would eventually include petrol and diesel cars, responding "Eventually yes" when asked about a wider rollout.
Cox emphasised his group's stance, saying: "FairFuelUK will continue to fight for lower road user taxes." He summarised his concern by declaring: "EVs are the guinea pigs to a digital ID control of our road movements for all vehicles."
Financial Forecasts and Market Impact
According to projections from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the new per-mile charge is expected to generate significant revenue for the Treasury. It is forecast to bring in £1.1 billion in the 2028-29 financial year, with that figure rising to around £1.9 billion by 2030-31.
However, the OBR noted that the actual yield "is uncertain" and will heavily depend on how many people choose to buy electric cars over the coming five years. The watchdog also warned that the new charge was "likely to reduce demand for electric cars as it increases their lifetime cost."
To meet government mandates on EV sales, the OBR suggested manufacturers may need to respond by lowering prices or reducing sales of non-electric vehicles. Overall, the charge is predicted to result in approximately 440,000 fewer electric car sales, though other government policies might help offset around 320,000 of those lost sales.
Broader Context for UK Drivers
The warning about future road pricing comes alongside other motoring financial pressures. Simon Williams, the RAC's head of policy, commented on the recent fuel duty freeze, calling it a "relief" but cautioning it would be "very short-lived given the staggered increase from next September."
He added a stark reminder of ongoing high costs, noting: "Without the discount, drivers would still be paying more for a litre of petrol than they were prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which sent pump prices rocketing to record levels."
The combination of these factors paints a picture of increasing financial burdens for drivers, with the new EV tax potentially setting a precedent for a fundamental shift in how all road use is taxed and monitored in the future.
