Major high street banks including Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds Bank, NatWest, and Santander have moved to reduce selected fixed rates, dealing a blow to homeowners. The Moneyfacts Average Mortgage Rate recorded its largest monthly increase since July 2023, with average rates across two, five, and ten-year fixed sectors all rising year-on-year.
At the beginning of April, the average ten-year fixed rate exceeded 6% for the first time since July 2024. The average two-year fixed rate climbed to its highest level since July 2024, while the five-year equivalent rose to its peak since November 2023. Rachel Springall, finance expert at Moneyfactscompare.co.uk, commented: "Borrowers have been left in limbo as it is difficult to know whether they should rush to lock into a fixed deal or wait and see if lenders make more sizeable cuts."
"Unfortunately, the outlook on interest rates remains uncertain, so mortgage holders coming off a cheap fixed rate will have to cover higher repayments this year, which will be incredibly frustrating. It is still worth moving off an expensive revert rate, as borrowers could save almost £2,500 a year moving onto a fixed rate deal." Springall added: "The Bank of England refuses to rush any decisions and with fears of a recession already creeping in, it looks like stagflation has thrown out any plans for cuts this year. Economists expect the BOE base rate to hold in the short-term, and it's looking increasingly unlikely we will see a cut until 2027." She noted that borrowers hope the recent mortgage mayhem will calm, but repricing could go both ways amid swap rate moves.
Mortgage rate hikes have been driven by the conflict in the Middle East, where disruption of supply chains has created uncertainty for the future path of inflation and interest rate setting. Increasing pressures on households have the potential to echo shocks felt during the summer of 2023, so the biggest concern for consumers will be how long they need to endure it, particularly for those looking to buy a home or remortgage, as mortgage rates have risen significantly in a short space of time.
The Moneyfacts Average Mortgage Rate rose by 0.82% month-on-month (March 1 versus April 1), the biggest monthly rise since July 2023. While the spikes in rates look similar on the surface to the shocks felt in summer 2023 and the mini-Budget in 2022, they have very different driving forces. Lenders will be watching the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision very closely, as it would be unwise to price deals too low in the short-term, so they will react if swap rates start rising significantly again.
At the end of February, before the unrest in the Middle East began, the biggest banks had their lowest two-year fixed mortgages priced around 0.30% above the two-year swap rate of 3.33%, but back then there were also expectations for more BOE base rate cuts. This is why borrowers had a decent pool of sub-4% fixed deals to choose from. Base rate tracker mortgages currently look attractive but could be a gamble if interest rates rise this year, so choosing a deal with no early repayment charge would be wise.
Lenders will be looking to reprice to catch up to higher swap rates over the coming days, but also to compete for new business, it's all in the margins. Until the market sees more stability, there is very little scope for lenders to drop rates substantially due to the prolonged unrest in the Middle East. Any borrower concerned about securing a mortgage would be wise to seek advice from a broker to navigate the mortgage maze.
