Nationwide Building Society has issued a stark forecast for UK bank accounts, predicting that the average customer will see their balance drop by £123 as a direct result of Black Friday and Cyber Monday spending.
Transaction Tsunami Predicted for November
The UK's largest building society anticipates a colossal more than 260 million transactions throughout November. This leads up to the peak shopping days, with a specific prediction of over 12 million transactions on Black Friday itself. From the 1st to the 28th of November, Nationwide forecasts a daily average of 8.42 million transactions, marking a seven per cent increase compared to the same period in 2024.
Spending Intentions Amid Financial Pressure
Despite this projected transaction boom, a significant consumer contradiction is emerging. Nationwide's research reveals that almost 40% of consumers state they are not planning to buy anything at all during the Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales. This hesitation is attributed to lower consumer confidence and ongoing worries about the cost of living and rising bills.
The spending habits also show a clear generational divide. Younger consumers aged 25-34 are expected to be the biggest spenders, planning to part with nearly double the UK average at around £255 per person. In contrast, Gen-Z respondents are more cautious, planning to spend slightly less than the average at £119 per person.
A Shift in Shopping Behaviour
Mark Nalder, Service, Operations & Performance Director at Nationwide Building Society, commented on the trends. He confirmed that Black Friday remains a key date for consumers looking to treat themselves or buy Christmas gifts. However, he noted a strategic shift in behaviour: “As retailers and brands launch Black Friday sales earlier each year, so do savvy UK shoppers, who are planning, searching and wish-listing weeks before the traditional day of Black Friday to ensure they’re getting the best value for money.”
He added, “However, cost of living challenges continue to eat into budgets, which explains why almost 40 per cent of consumers are planning not to buy anything altogether this year. Despite this, it is positive that some Brits are continuing to spend on items that bring them joy.”
