One of the UK's leading housebuilders, Taylor Wimpey, has been forced to downgrade its earnings forecast for 2025 following a significant slowdown in sales, which it blames on uncertainty surrounding the government's autumn budget.
Shares Slide as Profit Forecast is Trimmed
The company saw its share price tumble by as much as 6% during morning trading on Thursday, 15 January 2026, after it announced a revised operating profit outlook. It now anticipates a figure of approximately £420 million for the full year 2025. While this represents an increase from the £416.2 million reported in 2024, it falls short of the £424 million forecast made in November last year.
In a statement, the firm directly linked the downturn to political and fiscal unpredictability. "Uncertainty ahead of the late autumn budget impacted sales through the second half of 2025 and our order book coming into 2026," a company spokesperson confirmed.
Order Book Shrinks, Casting Shadow Over 2026
The ripple effects of this sales slump are set to be felt well into the next year. Taylor Wimpey's forward order book, a key indicator of future revenue, was valued at £1.86 billion at the end of 2025. This marks a notable decline from the £2 billion recorded at the close of 2024.
This weaker starting position has led management to issue a cautious outlook for 2026. The company expects its group operating profit margin to be lower than in 2025 and for its financial performance to be more heavily weighted towards the second half of the year than is typical.
Market Challenges Amid Operational Success
Despite the challenging market conditions, Taylor Wimpey reported several positive operational milestones for 2025. The company completed 10,614 new homes in the UK, up from 9,972 the previous year and in line with its targets.
Financially, higher selling prices contributed to a revenue boost. The average selling price for private homes rose to £374,000 from £356,000 in 2024, helping to push total group revenue to around £3.8 billion, compared to £3.4 billion a year earlier.
Chief Executive Jennie Daly described 2025 as a "robust performance... in the context of challenging market conditions." She welcomed recent government planning reforms but highlighted ongoing sector headwinds. "However, while affordability is slowly improving, demand continues to be muted – particularly among the important first-time buyer category – which will constrain overall sector output," Daly added.
The news from Taylor Wimpey echoes a similar announcement from rival Vistry, which on Wednesday reported a drop in house sales for 2025, also citing a "more subdued market" due to budget uncertainty.
