The Welsh housing market is poised for a robust start to 2026, with chartered surveyors forecasting a significant uptick in sales activity and modest price growth over the first quarter.
Surveyors Predict Surge in Sales and Prices
According to the latest Residential Market Survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), a net balance of 21% of Welsh surveyors anticipate an increase in home sales during the first three months of the year. This optimistic outlook builds on a relatively positive end to 2025, which saw a noted uplift in new buyer enquiries and fresh property listings from sellers.
The price forecast is similarly encouraging. A net balance of 22% of respondents now expect house prices in Wales to rise in Q1, marking a shift from the relatively flat picture recorded at the close of 2025.
Local Insight and Rental Market Trends
Anthony Filice, of Kelvin Francis in Cardiff, highlighted the current dynamics. "With competitive mortgage rates, first time buyers are seeking to buy instead of renting and a satisfactory number of sales are being agreed," he said. "Many vendors have been waiting to January though to list their properties."
On the rental sector, Filice noted a split market: "Rental properties in the lower rent ranges are letting swiftly, but, in the upper ranges are taking longer to attract tenants." He also pointed to a trend of senior landlords offloading properties, citing increasing changes in rental laws and tax increases as key factors.
Long-Term Outlook and UK Context
Looking at the whole of 2026, Welsh surveyors remain positive about transaction levels. While the annual price outlook is flat, a net balance of 25% expect sales activity to be higher by the end of the year.
This contrasts with the broader UK picture. Tarrant Parsons, RICS Head of Market Research and Analysis, stated: "The UK residential market remains in a prolonged soft patch, with December’s survey recording a sixth consecutive month of negative momentum in buyer enquiries." However, he identified tentative signs of improvement. "Near-term sales expectations have strengthened... The key test for 2026 will be whether borrowing costs ease on a sustained basis. If so, this could provide the catalyst needed to drive a recovery in buyer demand."
