The Met Office and BBC have pinpointed the exact two-week period in July when the next UK heatwave is most likely to occur, following a record-breaking end to June that saw temperatures soar to 38°C.
Forecast Period and Heatwave Potential
The Met Office has issued two medium-to-long-term forecasts for July, identifying July 10 to July 24 as having significant heatwave potential. This comes after this week's heatwave, which extended into a third day on Friday, June 26, with further 38°C heat expected. The current heatwave is likely to break with thunderstorms, and temperatures are expected to subside slightly over the weekend.
Forecasters state there is a "greater than normal chance" of hot conditions during this period. They explain: "High pressure patterns are looking slightly more likely than low pressure patterns during the early part of this period, meaning a greater chance of settled and drier than average conditions. Although with outbreaks of rain and stronger winds at times, more especially across the north."
Potential for Unsettled Weather
The Met Office adds: "There is still a chance of some changeable or more unsettled conditions developing later in the period, with a risk of some heavy and thundery showers. Temperatures are likely to be above normal on the whole, with a greater than normal chance of hot conditions developing at times."
BBC's Outlook
The BBC's forecast covers Monday, July 6 to Sunday, July 19, warning that high pressure may become influential again. Their outlook states: "The outlook further into July has high uncertainty, with longer range models becoming increasingly divergent. High pressure should feature in some shape or form, but its position will have a major influence on the UK's conditions."
The BBC adds: "The most probable outcome is for it to drift across the UK while also building at high latitudes, initially over Greenland but latterly more widely. Eventually, high pressure could also build across Scandinavia. The upshot should be a relatively dry period across most of the UK – not completely dry but with seasonal or below-average rainfall amounts. Temperatures should be near to above average, with strongest warmth across southern regions, where it could become hot again."
Risk Factors
The BBC notes a risk: "The risk to this forecast is that high pressure stays farther west, which would result in cooler flows and potentially wetter weather overall."
