Hospital admissions for influenza in England have recorded their first weekly decline this winter, offering a glimmer of hope amidst the seasonal surge. However, health authorities are urging the public not to become complacent, warning that infections could see a significant 'bounce back' after the Christmas period.
Encouraging Data with a Note of Caution
New figures released by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) show that the rate of flu admissions stood at 7.8 per 100,000 people in the week ending 21 December. This marks a decrease from the rate of 10.0 per 100,000 recorded the previous week.
While admissions dropped across every age group, the highest rates continue to be among the oldest adults. For those aged 85 and over, the rate was 47.0 per 100,000, down from 64.5 the week before.
Dr Jamie Lopez-Bernal, a consultant epidemiologist at UKHSA, described the downturn as 'encouraging' but stressed that flu remains 'still very much with us'. He highlighted the unpredictability of the virus, noting it is still circulating and could resurge in the new year as seen in previous winters.
Vaccination Remains a Critical Defence
With families gathering for Christmas, officials are emphasising the importance of protective measures. Dr Lopez-Bernal specifically urged those still eligible for a free flu jab to come forward.
'For anyone eligible who is still not vaccinated, it's not too late to get protected for the rest of the winter, but time is running out,' he stated. He added that vaccination can be the key difference in preventing severe illness and hospitalisation.
The UKHSA advises anyone with cold or flu-like symptoms to:
- Limit contact with other people where possible.
- Consider wearing a face covering in crowded, enclosed spaces.
- Wash hands regularly and ensure indoor spaces are well-ventilated.
Context of a Challenging Winter
The recent decline in admissions occurred during a week when junior doctors in England were engaged in industrial action, adding pressure to NHS services. Professor Meghana Pandit, NHS England's national medical director, had warned that the combination of strikes and seasonal viruses meant many hospitals would be on high alert.
Despite the current pressures, this winter's peak flu admission rate remains below those of recent years. Last winter, admissions peaked at 16.2 per 100,000 in the week before Christmas. The winter of 2022/23 saw an even higher peak of 18.1 per 100,000, during the UK's worst flu outbreak for a decade.
Supporting the admission data, the percentage of positive flu tests analysed from GP surgeries and hospitals also fell, from 21.1% to an average of 17.2% last week.
