The political future of Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer could be decided on a single day in May 2026, according to a stark warning from a leading polling expert. Conservative peer Lord Robert Hayward has predicted that the Labour Party is on course for significant electoral losses across England, Scotland, and Wales, a result that may reignite questions over Starmer's leadership.
Nationwide Losses Forecast for Labour
Lord Hayward's analysis points to a challenging set of elections for the governing party on May 7, 2026. In England, he forecasts "very, very large" losses for Labour in council contests, particularly in its traditional urban strongholds. These include London, Merseyside, Greater Manchester, and Yorkshire.
The expected beneficiaries are a broad coalition of opposition parties. Reform UK, the Green Party, and the Liberal Democrats are all predicted to gain ground. In parts of east London, pro-Gaza Independent candidates are also likely to make inroads. Even the Conservatives could pick up seats in the capital, which may bolster leader Kemi Badenoch's position.
"A few months ago it looked as if May 7 would be decisive for the leaderships of both Labour and Conservatives," Lord Hayward stated. "As we move into 2026 it now looks as if the May elections could decide the fate of Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves, but it is less clear that that will be the case for Kemi Badenoch."
Constitutional Implications in Scotland and Wales
The most profound long-term consequences, however, may stem from the results in the devolved nations. In Scotland, Labour's once-hopeful prospect of replacing the SNP at Holyrood has dimmed. Lord Hayward suggests the party is now headed for "one hell of a battering", with the SNP, Greens, and Reform poised to perform well.
A strong SNP victory could reopen demands for a second Scottish independence referendum. In Wales, the political landscape is complicated by an enlarged Senedd and a lower voting age. Following the Caerphilly by-election in October 2025, Plaid Cymru and Reform are expected to gain at Labour's expense, potentially leading to louder calls for greater devolution.
Leadership Futures Hang in the Balance
The bleak national picture raises the distinct possibility of a renewed internal challenge to Sir Keir Starmer's authority. Questions about his leadership previously surfaced in November 2025 after anonymous briefings by his allies against potential rivals.
Lord Hayward described the likely outcome not as a clear victory for any single party, but as a "cacophony of winners". While Reform may see the largest percentage gains from a low base, a mix of parties will claim successes, with the full picture emerging only days after the polls close.
For the Conservatives, success in London councils like Westminster or Barnet could solidify Kemi Badenoch's leadership. For Labour and Keir Starmer, the elections on May 7, 2026, are shaping up to be a definitive and potentially perilous test.
