A new YouGov poll has predicted that Reform UK will dominate the upcoming local elections across the West Midlands, securing the highest vote share in every council area. The polling data, released on 4 May 2026, covers Birmingham, Sandwell, Walsall, Wolverhampton, Solihull, and Dudley.
Reform UK's Projected Gains
In Birmingham, Reform UK is tied with Labour at 21 percent, a significant shift from Labour's historical dominance. In Sandwell, a Labour stronghold where the party once held all 72 council seats, Reform UK is forecast to win 28 percent of the vote, compared to Labour's 25 percent. Walsall sees Reform UK leading with 32 percent, while in Dudley, the party is projected to secure a commanding 41 percent. Wolverhampton and Solihull also show Reform UK ahead, with 31 percent in each.
Labour's Mixed Fortunes
Despite the overall trend, the poll may offer some relief for Labour. In Birmingham, the party is predicted to hold its ground, matching Reform UK at 21 percent, which prevents a complete wipeout in the city. However, in other areas, Labour's support has eroded significantly. The party is forecast to win 28 percent in Wolverhampton, but this is still behind Reform UK's 31 percent.
Green Party Surge
The Green Party is also projected to make strong gains, polling 19 percent in Birmingham and between 14 and 21 percent across other councils. In Sandwell, the Greens are expected to secure 21 percent, while in Solihull, they are at 17 percent.
Full Polling Data
Here are the full results by council area:
- Birmingham: Conservatives 13%, Labour 21%, Lib Dems 12%, Reform UK 21%, Greens 19%, Others 14%
- Sandwell: Conservatives 15%, Labour 25%, Lib Dems 10%, Reform UK 28%, Greens 21%, Others 2%
- Walsall: Conservatives 22%, Labour 16%, Lib Dems 3%, Reform UK 32%, Greens 14%, Others 14%
- Dudley: Conservatives 17%, Labour 20%, Lib Dems 8%, Reform UK 41%, Greens 13%, Others 1%
- Wolverhampton: Conservatives 15%, Labour 28%, Lib Dems 6%, Reform UK 31%, Greens 19%, Others 1%
- Solihull: Conservatives 26%, Labour 10%, Lib Dems 16%, Reform UK 31%, Greens 17%, Others 0%
Implications
If the polling translates into actual results, both Birmingham and Sandwell councils would be under no overall control, but with Reform UK as the largest party. This represents a historic shift in the political landscape of the West Midlands, traditionally dominated by Labour and the Conservatives.
