Motorists across the UK are being warned of an imminent and unwelcome rise in diesel prices, driven by the potential for renewed global political instability. The trigger is a possible military intervention in Venezuela by US President Donald Trump, which analysts fear could severely disrupt a key source of the crude oil used to produce diesel.
The Source of the Threat: Venezuela's 'Heavy Sour' Crude
President Trump has recently escalated rhetoric against Venezuela, using his Truth Social platform to declare the nation's airspace would be "closed in its entirety". He has also hinted at potential "land action". This matters to drivers in England and beyond because Venezuela is a major producer of specific "heavy sour" grades of crude oil, which are a critical feedstock for refineries manufacturing diesel fuel.
Cyril Widdershoven, an analyst at Strategy International Cyprus, explained the scale of the risk: "Venezuela’s one million to 1.1 million barrels per day of heavy-sour output are crucial for US and Asian refineries. Any disruption could spike Brent and diesel prices." Despite a global oil surplus this year, the specific type of crude needed for diesel is in tighter supply, making the market more vulnerable to shocks.
Compounding Pressures on Diesel Supply
The potential crisis in South America is not the only factor putting upward pressure on diesel costs. David Oxley of Capital Economics noted that prices are already on "a bit of a tear recently", partly due to Ukrainian drone attacks taking Russian refinery capacity offline.
Furthermore, the European market's dependency has shifted since the war in Ukraine. "Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Europe has leaned heavily on US diesel and gasoline," stated Mr Widdershoven. "Any change in US refinery output will lead to higher product import bills and diesel premiums in Europe." This means a disruption affecting US refineries would have a direct and amplified impact on British forecourts.
What This Means for UK Drivers
The advice from market watchers is clear: drivers seeking to avoid the worst of any price surge should consider filling up in the short-term, immediate future. As of early December 2025, the average UK diesel price stands at around 146p per litre, with motorway service stations charging significantly more at approximately 169p. These figures are expected to climb rapidly if the geopolitical situation deteriorates.
While some analysts, like Oxley, point out that Venezuela's output is less pivotal globally than in the past due to years of mismanagement, the specialised nature of its oil means a sudden loss would still roil the diesel market specifically. For British households and businesses reliant on diesel vehicles, the coming days could see a sharp and costly change at the pumps, dictated by events thousands of miles away.
