Professor Mark Barry's Verdict on the £14bn Rail Investment Promise for Wales
In a significant development, Prime Minister Keir Starmer has acknowledged the necessity for increased UK Government investment in Wales' non-devolved rail network, committing to fiscal support over the long-term. This endorsement aligns with a vision outlined by Transport for Wales (TfW), implying capital funding across Wales spanning at least 15 years, with a headline figure of £14bn extending into the 2040s.
Short-Term Commitments and Funding Gaps
In the immediate future, this includes a restated commitment to upgrade the South Wales Mainline, the Burns stations and services, funding for Cardiff Parkway, and interventions in North Wales, such as a new Deeside Industrial Estate station. However, there appears to be no additional funding within the current £300m spending review period ending in March 2030. Despite this, the Prime Minister's political endorsement signals a rail investment programme in Wales of approximately £1bn per year following the next spending review period.
More pressing is the early need to bolster the current £300m commitment to fully fund the initial schemes outlined by the Prime Minister and First Minister Eluned Morgan. These schemes, which have a price tag estimated at £600m to £700m, include:
- South Wales Mainline relief line upgrade
- Six Burns stations, now including Parkway and additional rolling stock for Cardiff-Bristol services
- Metro Central (£140m upgrade of Cardiff Central Station)
- Cardiff West junction upgrade
- Padeswood sidings
- North Wales Mainline level crossings
- Deeside Industrial Estate Station
The UK Government could have acknowledged that the Welsh Government has funded most South Wales projects from its block grant, impacting areas like health and education, and offered to increase its contribution to initiate further schemes now.
Key Omissions and Strategic Needs
For instance, electrification to Penarth and a passing loop on the Coryton line as part of Cardiff Crossrail phase two could enable four tram-train services per hour through Penarth-Bay-Coryton routes. This would free up Stadler-built trimodes for the new Cardiff-Bristol Burns services. Additionally, the UK Government should have offered a more reasonable ongoing settlement to cover maintenance and repair costs for the Core Valley Lines, the only devolved part of Wales' rail network. Further funding to accelerate Metro development in Swansea would also be beneficial.
Nonetheless, this new political commitment represents a positive step toward the full devolution of rail powers and funding, which is essential for Wales. Full devolution, coupled with a fair block grant adjustment, would lock these commitments in place and mitigate the risk of future Westminster governments altering their stance. In advance of a fully devolved settlement, this Wales rail enhancement pipeline requires its own Department for Transport budget line.
The TfW Vision and Collective Efforts
The TfW vision document, Today, Tomorrow, Together, presents an impressive list of potential rail investments in the Wales and Borders route over the next 15-20 years, reflecting significant efforts over the past five years by TfW, with support from the Welsh Government. This effort has fostered a close and effective working relationship with Network Rail's strategic planning team in Wales, key local authority and regional partners, and Department for Transport officials.
The collective capability led by TfW now far exceeds what the UK Government's Department for Transport and Network Rail historically achieved regarding rail enhancements in Wales. The level of ambition for Wales' rail network, which was missing for decades, has been addressed since the publication of Professor Barry's Case for Investment for Minister Ken Skates in 2018.
Cardiff Crossrail Phase Two: A Critical Omission
Glaring omissions in the current programme include the need for a minimum of four trains per hour Metro services on the City and Coryton Lines in Cardiff, which are long-standing requirements. While reflected in the prospectus, this should be the priority for the next stage of Metro development, as fixing Cardiff would drive the most additional passengers for the fewest track kilometres of any scheme in Wales, making financial sense.
Furthermore, Cardiff Crossrail phase two is entirely absent as a coherent programme, despite its component parts being fragmented in presentation and development. From earlier draft work, phase two has the potential to secure between 1.5 million to 2 million additional passengers annually to the Core Valley Lines, which currently handle around 12 million per year. The full Cardiff Crossrail could add a further 5 million passengers, significantly impacting Wales' 2040 net zero public transport mode share targets.
The economic impact of the full Cardiff Crossrail was estimated to add £900m to the economy by facilitating development and regeneration opportunities across the network. This is in addition to the £700m economic benefits calculated for the South East Wales Metro in TfW's prospectus. The full Crossrail would also serve parts of Cardiff's southern arc with significant socio-economic challenges.
Delivering Cardiff Crossrail Phase Two
To deliver Cardiff Crossrail phase two, estimated at around £200m, the following are required:
- Four trains per hour on the City Line, enabled by the commitment to upgrade Cardiff West junction
- Four on the Coryton Line, needing a passing loop and further rolling stock
- Electrification to Penarth and operation of tram-trains for Penarth-Coryton services
- Station Link, providing a short connection from new Crossrail platforms at Cardiff Central to existing lines
- New stations at Gabalfa, Ely Mill, and Roath Park, and an additional platform at Cogan for Penarth services
- Reversing of some Core Valley Lines transformation value engineering
- Revised and simplified service patterns
- Lloyd George Avenue landscaping and urban realm
- Ideally, inclusion of Crossrail Phase 1b to Pierhead Street
Station Link is not a long-term aspiration but a fundamental and urgent need for Cardiff and the Core Valley Line network, addressing capacity, redundancy, and resilience issues.
Integration and Constitutional Considerations
Also important is the role of buses and integration in urban areas, where integrated multi-modal networks of rail, light rail, bus, and active travel are being developed. In the next five years, bus reform and re-designed networks will be as crucial as rail investment to deliver a single public transport network.
While the UK Government has recognised the scale of investment needed in Wales, the current constitutional arrangement for rail, being non-devolved, is not fit for purpose. The GB Railways Bill in England will deliver vertical integration of track and train, but not in Wales, risking a setback for Wales' rail network. Full devolution of rail to the Welsh Government, with an appropriate block grant adjustment, is necessary to ensure fair funding and empower integrated transport policy.
This would also return the Barnett Wales/DfT comparability factor to a healthier level, ensuring more equitable treatment in the future. Overall, this announcement is a positive step forward, but much work remains to achieve the ultimate goal of a fully devolved rail network in Wales.
