The GFS weather model is predicting a new heatwave beginning on July 8, with temperatures potentially climbing to 41C on July 11, which would break the UK record for the hottest day ever recorded. The previous record of 40.3C was set in July 2022.
Heatwave Timeline and Predictions
According to the GFS weather model, the heatwave will start on July 8, with temperatures exceeding 30C across most of England. Birmingham and the West Midlands could see highs of 33-34C on that day. By July 9, temperatures could reach 37C in southern England and 32C in parts of South Wales.
On July 10, staggering peaks of 40C are possible across western and southern England, with widespread temperatures between 37C and 39C in central and southern regions. This could prove to be the warmest day ever documented in the UK.
Potential Record-Breaking Day on July 11
July 11 is projected to be even warmer, with the GFS model indicating possible temperature highs of 41C in western England. Vast stretches of the country from Yorkshire down to London could soar to 40C. In total, GFS weather model maps suggest 18 counties could reach 40C or above, including Yorkshire, Nottinghamshire, Lincolnshire, Leicestershire, Derbyshire, Northamptonshire, Lancashire, Cheshire, Shropshire, Bedfordshire, Hertfordshire, Herefordshire, Worcestershire, Warwickshire, Oxfordshire, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire, and Surrey.
Met Office Outlook for July
The Met Office has indicated a "greater than normal chance" of further hot weather arriving in July. Their outlook for July 12 to 26 states: "High pressure is looking slightly more likely than low pressure during the early part of this period, meaning a greater chance of settled and drier than average conditions." They also note that outbreaks of rain and stronger winds are possible, particularly further north, and there is still a chance of heavy and thundery showers interrupting any warm and settled weather. Towards the end of July, no reliable signal for preferring any one weather pattern exists, but temperatures are likely to be above normal overall, with a greater than normal chance of hot conditions developing at times.
Recent Temperature Records
Temperature records have already been shattered this week as the mercury soared beyond 37C. Britain recorded the hottest June day, with the record broken on three successive days, peaking at 37.3C on Friday. The potential 41C would surpass the existing record for the hottest day in the country ever, set in July 2022 at 40.3C.
