Climate scientists are predicting that a 'super El Niño' could bring a prolonged hot and dry summer to the UK, raising concerns about potential droughts in the West Midlands and Staffordshire.
What is a Super El Niño?
An El Niño occurs when the tropical Pacific transitions between warmer and cooler weather patterns, known as El Niño and La Niña. The cooler La Niña phase has been present since December 2024, but El Niño is expected to return as early as May or June, bringing warmer and drier conditions.
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has high confidence in the onset of El Niño, with some meteorologists branding it a 'super El Niño' due to its predicted strength.
Impact on the West Midlands and Staffordshire
While the primary effects of El Niño are felt in the tropical Pacific, the UK can be indirectly influenced. Typically, El Niño brings warmer weather to the UK during summer and increases the likelihood of colder winters.
In 2025, despite being in a cooler La Niña phase, the UK experienced one of its warmest years on record, with drought actions enforced across the West Midlands. Reservoir levels dropped significantly, with Blithfield Reservoir falling to 47.5% and Tittesworth Reservoir at 56%.
Could Another Drought Occur?
The exact impact of this El Niño on the UK remains uncertain. However, the combination of rising global temperatures and the potential for a super El Niño increases the risk of another drought in the region.
Severn Trent's Tittesworth Reservoir in Leek, Staffordshire, previously experienced low water levels, and similar conditions could recur if the summer proves exceptionally dry.
Residents and businesses in the West Midlands and Staffordshire are advised to monitor weather forecasts and prepare for possible water restrictions.
