A new report has issued a stark warning about the future health of Britain's children, projecting that nearly a quarter of 10-year-olds could be classified as clinically obese within the next decade if current trends continue.
The Class of 2035 Report Findings
The Youth Sport Trust has launched its latest Class of 2035 Report, produced in partnership with research agency Savanta, which uses artificial intelligence modelling and children's polling data to project the consequences of current inactivity trends. The report paints a concerning picture of a nation at a crossroads, with inactivity rising as wellbeing falls.
According to the projections, by 2035 if urgent action isn't taken:
- Almost half (48%) of children will spend three hours or more on screens for entertainment daily, up from 34% in 2025
- More than a third (34%) will fail to be active for even 30 minutes daily, well short of the UK Chief Medical Officers' guidance of 60 active minutes
- Obesity rates among 10-11 year olds will surge to 24%, with more than 180,000 children classified as clinically obese, up from 22% in 2025
- Annual Type 2 diabetes diagnoses in children will double, reaching 500 new cases each year
- Schools will see declining attendance, engagement, and belonging among the least active pupils
Economic and Social Impact
The report highlights the enormous social and economic value of physical activity across England. Sport England's latest social value model estimates that active lifestyles provide £8 billion in direct net savings to the healthcare system through illness prevention.
They have also placed a wellbeing value of £14.1 billion on children and young people's participation between ages 7 to 16, reflecting the monetary equivalent that can be placed on changes to an individual's overall wellbeing as measured by their life satisfaction.
Without urgent action to increase children's physical activity levels, the annual direct and indirect costs of inactivity are set to soar over the next decade.
Calls for Urgent Action
The release of the Class of 2035 report comes as the Chancellor prepares to deliver the Autumn Budget. With the health and economic costs of inactivity among children projected to rise sharply, the report highlights the need for targeted investment in physical activity and PE.
Ali Oliver MBE, Chief Executive of the Youth Sport Trust, stated: "Every day we read worrying stories about the declining health and wellbeing of children and young people, often the statistics are reported in isolation, and rarely is the story told of the compound impact on the next generation."
"By 2035, without action to increase physical activity levels and improve access to the many benefits associated with active childhoods, we will have delivered a generation with poorer health, lower happiness, lower attainment and as a result, lower life chances than generations prior - a legacy of physical and mental neglect."
New Commission Launched
In response to the findings, the Youth Sport Trust has launched the Sport Changes Lives Commission, chaired by former Trustee Dr Paula Franklin. The Commission brings together leading experts from healthcare, child development, and public health who share the charity's concern about the impact of inactivity on young people.
Commissioners will review the report's evidence, share insights, and publish recommendations in early 2026 for addressing and reversing these trends.
Mat Shaw, CEO of Great Ormond Street Hospital for Children, emphasised: "Every child deserves the chance to move, play, and feel strong. We know that physical activity isn't just about fitness and that it boosts confidence, emotional well-being, and even recovery."
Dr Radha Modgil, Youth Sport Trust Health & Wellbeing Champion, added: "My hope for the commission is that it will trigger action and outcomes that support every child to have the opportunity to have sport, play and physical activity as a constant friend and companion throughout their lives."
Together the Class of 2035 Report and the Sport Changes Lives Commission aim to shine a spotlight on the urgent need to reimagine how schools, policy and wider communities support children's physical and mental wellbeing through PE, sport and play.
