Inflation in the United Kingdom has risen once again, with the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) reaching 3.3% in the 12 months to March 2026, up from 3.0% in February. The increase is largely attributed to higher fuel prices stemming from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
Experts have described the uptick as "unwelcome but not surprising," and have warned that the Bank of England may find it difficult to "ignore the data if this continues." One analyst characterized the 90.5% surge in domestic heating oil costs in March as "a financial hammer blow."
On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.7% in March 2026, compared with a rise of 0.3% in March 2025. Motor fuels made the largest upward contribution to the monthly change in both CPIH and CPI annual rates, while clothing provided the largest partially offsetting downward contribution.
Core CPI and Sectoral Trends
Core CPI, which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, rose by 3.1% in the 12 months to March 2026, down slightly from 3.2% in February. The CPI goods annual rate increased from 1.6% to 2.1%, while the CPI services annual rate rose from 4.3% to 4.5%.
The 12-month rate for housing and household services stood at 4.3% in March 2026, up marginally from 4.2% in February. Prices in this category rose by 0.4% in the month to March 2026, compared with 0.2% a year ago. The increase was driven by substantial price rises for domestic heating oil, which jumped by 90.5% in March this year, against a fall of 7.5% a year earlier. This resulted in a 12-month rate of 95.3%, the highest since September 2022.
ONS and Expert Commentary
Grant Fitzner, Chief Economist at the Office for National Statistics (ONS), said: "Inflation climbed in March, largely due to increased fuel prices, which saw their largest increase for over three years. Airfares were another upward driver this month, alongside rising food prices. The only significant offset came from clothing costs, where prices rose by less than this time last year. The monthly cost of both raw materials for businesses and goods leaving factories rose substantially, driven by higher crude oil and petrol prices."
Speaking to Newspage, Riz Malik, Independent Financial Adviser at R3 Wealth in Southend-on-Sea, commented: "This rise in inflation is the tip of the iceberg thanks to the Trump tax that we are all having to pay. With oil still elevated and yo-yoing, it won't be long before the other factors that feed into the inflation number start rising. The Bank of England will be very wary to be the first to hike rates, but they can't ignore the data if this continues. We knew it was coming, but it doesn't make it any easier."
