Two new polls have sent shockwaves through candidates vying for seats on Birmingham City Council and in neighbouring Sandwell, Walsall and Coventry. The predictions, from polling experts YouGov and AI election analysts Bombe, forecast dramatic shifts across the West Midlands.
Reform UK Gains in Birmingham
The polls show Reform UK and Labour neck and neck in Birmingham, each predicted to win around 21 seats. This would leave the country's largest local authority without overall control for the first time in recent memory. The Greens are expected to make meaningful gains alongside independents and smaller parties.
Majority Control in Sandwell and Coventry
The biggest bombshells come in neighbouring councils. Both Sandwell and Coventry are expected to fall to Reform UK control. In Sandwell, Reform could win up to 60 of 72 seats, according to Bombe analysis. Coventry could also see Reform take outright control with 35 of 54 seats.
Walsall Shock Outcome
Walsall is also predicted to become Reform-led in what would be a shock outcome. The predictions suggest wafer-thin margins in many wards, with results potentially decided by just a handful of votes across the region.
Mike Joslin, co-founder and CEO of Bombe, said: "The West Midlands is the most dramatic regional story in our model this May. Reform UK are predicted to take outright control of Sandwell and Coventry - both currently Labour councils."
These predictions have sent shockwaves through the political landscape, as candidates prepare for the 2026 local elections. The full story is available from Birmingham Mail.
