The UK May heatwave could be merely the precursor to a far more intense summer, as experts warn of a looming "Super El Niño" that may shatter records. Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the UK Met Office, has issued an ominous alert for the months ahead.
Met Office Warning
"There's definitely something coming. We're very confident about that, and it looks like it will be a big event," Scaife stated, referring to the potential approaching Super El Niño, which could "even be of record strength."
UN Secretary General's Call
The United Nations has urged global preparedness for the imminent return of El Niño and its supercharged weather extremes. "El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world," said António Guterres, the UN secretary general. "Impacts will hit even harder, travel even further, and cross borders with devastating speed." He emphasized the need to treat this as an urgent climate warning.
High Probability of El Niño
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported an 80% chance of El Niño forming before September and a 90% chance before November. This powerful natural weather pattern raises global temperatures and exacerbates rainfall in some regions.
Impact on Food Supplies
Gareth Redmond-King from the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit, a British thinktank, described the findings as detrimental to food supplies. "The havoc El Niño will wreak as it likely delivers another hottest year, in 2027, will be devastating for many farmers, and a question of life or death for far too many people," he warned.
Potential for Record Heat
Professor Bill McGuire, emeritus professor of geophysical and climate hazards at University College London, noted that summer temperatures could be affected, possibly this year or more likely next. "I wouldn't be at all surprised to see 40C-plus heat," he said.
Call for Climate Action
Guterres stressed that "the only effective response is climate action equal to the crisis – ending the addiction to fossil fuels, accelerating the shift to renewables, protecting the most vulnerable, and delivering early-warning systems for all."
WMO Perspective
Celeste Saulo, secretary general of the WMO, acknowledged the uncertainty in predictions. "The spread is large. There are models that are not providing any indication of a strong El Niño, while others are doing so," she said. Saulo also highlighted challenges in climate finance and implementation of early-warning systems, noting that while they remain a priority, resource mobilization and implementation need improvement.
